Kinda.
AIS traffic 94% below baseline despite US military assertions of clearance; Iran rejects deals and threatens response; tanker attacks ongoing.
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Site methodology
A data pipeline ingests signals from maritime AIS feeds, geopolitical event databases, official advisories, and oil benchmarks. A language model weighs the signals and classifies the current state as open, contested, or closed, then writes the result here.
A status change triggers an immediate push to all connected browsers. No editorial opinion, no takes. Just signals in, one word out.
Kalshi's markets resolve via a 7-day moving average of transit calls (IMF PortWatch); authoritative but trailing. We read live signals, so our call can flag a reopening or a new closure before the markets can settle.